Agaezi National Union (ANU) – Position Paper
Why Tactical Alliances With TPLF Pose Strategic Risks for Ethiopia and All Regional Communities
Issued by: ANU Foreign Affairs & Strategic Policy Department
Date: December 2025
- Executive Summary
This position paper articulates ANU’s assessment that any tactical political or military alliance with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) poses significant long-term risks to Ethiopia’s national security, national cohesion, and regional stability.
ANU recognizes that Ethiopia is entering a period of extreme political fragmentation. In such an unstable environment, some actors may be tempted to form short-term alignments with actors they previously opposed. However, ANU maintains that tactical alliances with ideologically rigid and historically destabilizing organizations can create deeper structural crises.
ANU rejects alliances that undermine Ethiopia’s unity, sovereignty, or the safety and dignity of any ethno-regional community.
- Historical and Strategic Context
2.1 TPLF’s Longstanding Ideological Framework
TPLF has historically adhered to a rigid ideology rooted in:
- Ethno-liberation nationalism
- Territorial claims framed in historical grievance
- Zero-sum political calculations
- Reliance on external actors for strategic leverage
Although political environments have changed, TPLF has not publicly renounced the core ideological and territorial ambitions that contributed to decades of instability.
2.2 Legacy of Military Dominance and Coercion
From 1991 to 2018, TPLF presided over a federal system built on coercive security structures, political exclusion, and asymmetric power distribution.
This legacy still influences its political behavior. Tactical cooperation today does not erase structural patterns from the past.
2.3 Current Fragmentations Within Ethiopian Politics
In 2025, the political vacuum in the Horn of Africa has increased the temptation for fragmented groups to seek alliances “for survival.” ANU warns that alliances formed solely for short-term tactical benefit often deepen long-term instability.
- Why Tactical Alliances With TPLF Are Strategically Risky
3.1 Absence of Ideological Reform
TPLF has never formally revised, abandoned, or apologized for:
- its central involvement in policies that weakened Ethiopia’s unity
- its role in deepening ethno-political division
- its territorial claims over contested borderlands
- security actions that harmed civilians across regions
Working with an organization that has not redefined its vision risks enabling a return to past patterns.
3.2 Risk of Exploitation for Short-Term Advantages
TPLF has repeatedly used tactical alliances to:
- weaken rivals
- divide emerging political movements
- negotiate favorable externally-backed deals
- re-establish influence through fragmentation of others
Any group entering an alliance risks becoming a temporary tool in a broader strategic agenda.
3.3 Erosion of Public Trust
Cooperation with TPLF, even tactical, may:
- alienate communities deeply affected by past conflicts
- undermine the legitimacy of emerging political leaders
- sow mistrust in regions that experienced displacement, violence, or governance abuses
- reinforce perceptions of elite bargaining over public interests
ANU maintains that public trust is a national-security asset, and alliances that damage it are strategically irresponsible.
3.4 Encouraging Zero-Sum Politics
TPLF’s political strategy has historically relied on:
- maximizing regional advantage
- weakening central institutions
- framing political competition as existential or ethnic
A tactical alliance risks validating this zero-sum worldview and undermining inclusive national dialogue.
3.5 Undermining the Prospect of Long-Term Peace
For durable peace, Ethiopia requires:
- ideological moderation
- institutional balance
- multi-ethnic cooperation based on trust
- transparency and accountability
Alliances with organizations that have not undergone political introspection or democratic transformation undermine these goals.
- ANU’s Approach to Amhara–Tigray Relations
ANU’s principles for engagement between Amhara and Tigray communities are rooted in:
4.1 Peace Without Illusion
ANU supports peaceful, constructive relations between Amhara and Tigray people — two ancient communities with common history and culture. However, peace must be based on:
- honesty
- clear commitments
- mutual respect
- rejection of militarized politics
ANU rejects “forced reconciliation” that ignores underlying grievances.
4.2 Rights-Based Dialogue
ANU encourages dialogue that recognizes:
- the protection of civilians
- the right to dignity and security for all communities
- the necessity of accountability mechanisms for all actors
- the need for depoliticized humanitarian access
Dialogue must be civilian-focused, not elite-driven.
4.3 Rejecting Ethnic Hostility
ANU stands firmly against:
- ethnic blame
- collective guilt narratives
- hate propaganda
- demonization of entire populations
The issue is political and ideological — not ethnic.
4.4 Long-Term Inter-Regional Stability
ANU promotes:
- reconstruction of border communities
- restoration of trade and mobility
- interregional economic initiatives
- community-level reconciliation processes
- prevention of militia mobilization
Stable Amhara–Tigray relations strengthen the whole nation.
- ANU’s Strategic Vision
ANU’s political program emphasizes:
- national unity built on equality
- a modern, transparent federal order
- de-escalation of ethno-political militarization
- an accountable state that protects all its citizens
- diplomacy over confrontation
- justice without revenge
- development as a foundation for stability
ANU rejects any alliance that undermines this vision.
- Conclusion
Tactical alliances with TPLF — before ideological reform, accountability, and structural transformation — pose substantial risks to Ethiopia’s future.
ANU remains committed to principled diplomacy, rights-based political negotiation, and the long-term security of all Ethiopian communities, including Amhara and Tigray.
ANU will not participate in alliances that compromise Ethiopia’s stability, sovereignty, or civic trust.
ANU’s Public Position on Amhara–Tigray Relations
- ANU supports peace between Amhara and Tigray people — not elite deals behind closed doors.
- We reject tactical alliances with organizations that have not changed their ideology.
- Ethiopia needs honest dialogue, not recycled political arrangements.
- Amhara and Tigray communities deserve safety, dignity, and justice — free from political manipulation.
- ANU stands for long-term stability, not short-term survival politics.
- Strategic alliances must be built on accountability, transparency, and respect for national unity.
- The future belongs to a reformed, modern, democratic Ethiopia — not to past militarized agendas.
- Our message is clear: Peace is possible, but not at the expense of truth, justice, or national sovereignty.
