The Triangular Conflict in the Horn of Africa: Executive Summary – November 2025

Overview

The Horn of Africa is facing a triangular conflict involving Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party (PP), TPLF, and Eritrean forces, centered on Tigray, Eritrea, and Addis Ababa. This crisis combines political, ethnic, and resource-driven dynamics, placing civilians—especially Habesha Agaezi communities—at risk.

Key Drivers of the Conflict

1. Political & Constitutional Factors (ANU)

• PP: Advocates centralized federalism, national unity, and multi-ethnic integration.

• TPLF: Supports ethnic federalism, regional autonomy, and Tigrayan-centric governance.

• Implication: TPLF = political/military actor; Habesha Agaezi civilians ≠ TPLF. Identity and heritage protection are essential.

2. Resource & Economic Factors (Dr. Charlotte Touti)

• Tigray gold and mineral deposits are strategically significant and fuel armed resistance.

• International companies (Canada, Australia, China) extract minerals, exported via Eritrea, Sudan, UAE, and Switzerland.

• Resource control prolongs the conflict and increases civilian vulnerability.

Humanitarian & Cultural Impacts

• Civilians face displacement, economic disruption, and threats to education and healthcare.

• Cultural heritage, including Geʽez language, Orthodox traditions, and historical sites, is at risk.

• Smaller groups (Agew, Kunama, Irob, Afar) risk marginalization.

Regional Implications

• Eritrean involvement and cross-border trade amplify instability.

• Spillover effects threaten Sudan, Red Sea security, and diaspora communities.

• Resource-driven militarization and political rivalries prolong humanitarian crises.

Recommendations

1. Resource Governance: Transparent oversight to prevent conflict financing via minerals.

2. Political Reconciliation: Mediate constitutional differences; separate armed actors from civilians.

3. Civilian Protection: Safeguard Habesha Agaezi communities, heritage sites, and livelihoods.

4. Regional Coordination: Include Eritrea, Sudan, and international stakeholders in conflict-sensitive policies.

Conclusion

The Horn of Africa crisis is a political, ethnic, and economic conflict. Sustainable peace requires integrated approaches addressing governance, identity, and resource management, distinguishing armed political actors from innocent civilians to prevent further humanitarian and cultural losses.

Details: 

Dr. Charlotte Touti & ANU Political Framework: Synthesis and Critical Review – November 2025

1. Contextual Overview

The Horn of Africa, particularly Tigray, Eritrea, and bordering regions, is experiencing a triangular conflict involving the Prosperity Party (PP), TPLF, and Eritrean forces.

• Dr. Charlotte Touti emphasizes that resource exploitation, particularly gold and minerals, is a key driver of conflict.

• ANU highlights the distinction between armed political actors (TPLF) and the Habesha Agaezi civilian population, emphasizing identity protection, cultural heritage, and political inclusion.

2. Core Findings – Resource Dimension (Touti)

3. Core Findings – Political Dimension (ANU Framework)

Key ANU Emphasis:

• TPLF = political/military actor; Habesha Agaezi civilians ≠ TPLF

• Identity, language, and heritage protection is crucial for long-term stability.

4. Integrated Analysis: Resource-Political Nexus

1. Conflict Amplification

   • Resource interests (gold, minerals) strengthen TPLF and other armed actors.

   • PP perceives TPLF control over resources as a threat to national unity and economic reform.

2. Civilian Vulnerability

   • Habesha Agaezi civilians are caught between armed factions and resource-driven violence.

   • Cultural sites, education, and traditional livelihoods are disrupted.

3. Regional & Global Implications

   • Eritrea and Sudan are directly involved in trade and troop mobilization.

   • International mining corporations may inadvertently prolong conflict.

4. Peace & Governance

   • Political reconciliation requires addressing both federal-ethnic disputes and resource governance.

   • Transparent, conflict-sensitive economic policies can reduce incentives for militarization.

5. Policy Recommendations (Synthesis)

1. Governance of Resources

   • Enforce international oversight, audit mineral exports, and prevent conflict financing.

2. Political Reconciliation

   • Recognize constitutional differences and ethnic autonomy concerns.

   • Engage both PP and TPLF in mediated, civilian-focused dialogue.

3. Civilian & Cultural Protection

   • Safeguard Habesha Agaezi communities, heritage sites, and traditional livelihoods.

4. Regional Coordination

   • Include Eritrea, Sudan, and international actors in conflict-sensitive economic planning.

6. Conclusion

The Horn of Africa crisis is both a political and resource-driven conflict:

• Dr. Touti highlights the mining/resource dimension, showing how global economic interests fuel violence.

• ANU emphasizes the political/identity dimension, distinguishing between armed actors (TPLF) and civilians (Habesha Agaezi).

Integrated Approach: Peace, humanitarian protection, and stability require simultaneously addressing governance, identity, and economic drivers.

Dr. Charlotte Touti: Synthesis and Critical Review

1. Background

Dr. Charlotte Touti is a French researcher specializing in mining economics, resource geopolitics, and conflict studies in Africa. Her recent work focuses on the intersection of natural resource exploitation and armed conflict in the Horn of Africa, with a particular emphasis on gold mining in Tigray and its broader regional impacts.

Her book and research articles document:

• How mineral wealth drives political and military agendas.

• The role of foreign companies and global supply chains in perpetuating local conflicts.

• The economic, social, and cultural consequences for affected communities.

2. Key Findings

2.1 Resource Conflict Nexus

• Tigray’s gold and mineral resources are strategically significant.

• Mining activities have become entangled with ongoing armed conflict, providing funding streams to militias and political factions.

• Looting and illegal extraction exacerbate violence and hinder peace efforts.

2.2 Multinational Corporate Involvement

• Canadian, Australian, and Chinese mining companies operate in Tigray, often under complex local arrangements.

• Some operations allegedly benefit from, or even incentivize, ongoing military and paramilitary activity.

• Resources are exported through Eritrea, Sudan, UAE, and Switzerland, highlighting transnational dimensions.

2.3 Humanitarian and Cultural Impacts

• Civilians, particularly Habesha Agaezi communities, are displaced or taken hostage politically.

• Looting and environmental degradation undermine local livelihoods, traditional economies, and long-standing cultural practices.

• Orthodox churches, monasteries, and heritage sites are at risk due to both military activity and resource-driven operations.

2.4 Political Implications

• Resource exploitation exacerbates the ideological and constitutional conflict between the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (PP) and TPLF.

• Mining revenues may strengthen TPLF or other armed actors, prolonging conflict cycles.

• Regional geopolitics (Eritrea, Sudan, Horn of Africa) intersect with global commodity markets, amplifying risks of escalation.

3. Critical Assessment

Strengths

• Touti provides detailed empirical evidence linking resource exploitation to political violence.

• Her research contextualizes local conflicts within global supply chains, offering a rare macro-micro analysis.

• Highlights economic incentives behind military aggression, beyond purely ethnic or political narratives.

Limitations / Areas for Further Inquiry

• While the book details corporate involvement, legal accountability and compliance frameworks are less explored.

• More primary fieldwork from affected communities could strengthen the social impact perspective.

• Quantitative estimates of revenue flows and their exact link to military operations remain partial.

Implications for Policy

• Effective conflict resolution requires addressing resource governance alongside political reconciliation.

• Transparency in mining contracts and international oversight could reduce the economic drivers of war.

• Protection of Habesha Agaezi communities and cultural heritage should be central to any international response.

4. Conclusion

Dr. Charlotte Touti’s research critically reframes the Tigray conflict as not just an ethnic or political war but a resource-driven crisis with global entanglements. Her work underscores that:

• Conflict financing via mining is a key driver of continued violence.

• International companies and supply chains are indirectly implicated, requiring scrutiny.

• Protecting local populations, heritage, and traditional economies is inseparable from peacebuilding.

Takeaway: Any sustainable solution to the Horn of Africa conflicts must integrate political, humanitarian, and resource governance dimensions, a conclusion strongly supported by Touti’s research.