The Triangular Dirty Political War in the Horn of Africa
ANU Executive Overview – November 2025
Overview:
The Horn of Africa is experiencing a complex triangular conflict involving Asmara (Eritrea), Mekelle (Tigray/ northern Ethiopia), and Addis Ababa (Ethiopian Federal Government). The situation is exacerbated by internal TPLF factionalism, Eritrea-Ethiopia tensions, and the ongoing marginalization of smaller highland communities. ANU emphasizes the urgent need to differentiate between TPLF (political/military actors) and the civilian Habesha Agaezi population, who are being unfairly targeted and politically scapegoated.
Recent Incident:
-
Drone Strike in Tonsa, Raya, Agaezi: Ethiopian Air Force targeted TPLF security forces, resulting in multiple casualties.
-
Potential Violation: The strike may contravene the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
-
Implication: Heightened risk of renewed conflict and regional spillover.
Conflict Dynamics – The “Triangular War”:
-
Mekelle: Flashpoint of TPLF factional conflict.
-
Asmara: Longstanding Eritrea-Ethiopia territorial disputes and security concerns.
-
Addis Ababa: Federal government balancing internal Tigray conflict and external Eritrea tensions.
-
Key Risks: Multi-linkage clashes could draw neighboring states in, destabilize the Horn, and trigger humanitarian crises.
Impact on Habesha Agaezi / Geʽez-Heritage Communities:
-
Identity Strain: Political mobilization threatens the shared Agaezi-Habesha identity.
-
Cultural Threats: Orthodox churches, monasteries, and Geʽez traditions may be damaged or looted.
-
Displacement: Internal displacement and refugee flows weaken traditional livelihoods.
-
Marginalization: Smaller groups (Agew, Kunama, Irob, Afar) risk being overshadowed by larger identities.
-
Language & Literacy: Geʽez promotion may be politically contested.
Key Consequences & Risks:
-
Humanitarian Crisis: Civilians face threats to life, food security, and shelter.
-
Cultural Loss: High risk of eroding Geʽez heritage and Habesha Agaezi traditions.
-
Political Fragmentation: Ethiopia’s federal system may be further stressed.
-
Regional Instability: Conflict could spill over into Eritrea and Red Sea diaspora communities.
-
Identity Politics: Intensified ethnic divisions could weaken long-standing highland unity.
ANU Commitment & Call to Action:
-
Monitor and document verified grassroots reports.
-
Share evidence to facilitate coordinated international response.
-
Protect civilians, heritage, and regional stability.
-
Empower Habesha-Agaezi communities to preserve Geʽezland traditions, build inclusive identity, and protect vulnerable groups.
Contact:
Dr. Aregawi Mebrahtu
ANU Global Leadership, Geneva
Email: info@anu-party.org