Triangular Dirty Political War in the Horn of Africa (Asmara – Mekelle – Addis Ababa)

Triangular Dirty Political War in the Horn of Africa (Asmara – Mekelle – Addis Ababa)

Analytical Overview — November 2025

1. Core Definition

The “Triangular Dirty Political War” refers to the complex, overlapping power struggle among three key centers in the Horn of Africa:

• Asmara (Eritrea) — the militarized state of President Isaias Afwerki, prioritizing regime survival and regional control;

• Mekelle (Tigray) — seat of competing TPLF factions, seeking autonomy and influence after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement;

• Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) — the federal government under Abiy Ahmed Ali, balancing internal crises and external ambitions for Red Sea access.

This triangular conflict is “dirty” because it operates outside transparent political processes — involving covert alliances, propaganda, proxy militias, drone warfare, and disinformation campaigns — while civilian populations bear the brunt of suffering.

2. Structure of the Triangular Conflict

The triangle is reinforced by regional disinformation networks, foreign mercenary involvement, and economic manipulation (e.g., blockade of trade and aid routes).

3. Why It’s “Dirty”

• Proxy Warfare: Militias and drones used to attack political opponents and civilians alike.

• Collective Punishment: Civilian communities — especially Habesha Agaezi groups — are treated as political extensions of warring factions.

• Ethnic Manipulation: Political elites exploit historic identities (Amhara, Tigrayan, Agew, Afar) for short-term gain.

• Information War: Online campaigns from all three capitals distort facts to delegitimize humanitarian reporting.

• Resource Weaponization: Aid, food, and access to electricity or communications are restricted as tools of control.

4. Humanitarian and Cultural Fallout

The Geʽez-Habesha-Agaezi civilization zone — spanning northern Ethiopia and Eritrea — is the cultural victim of this dirty war:

• Ancient monasteries and churches damaged or looted.

• Sacred manuscripts and artifacts trafficked through wartime chaos.

• Communities (Agew, Irob, Kunama, Afar) displaced or silenced.

• Education and health systems in Geezland highlands collapse, deepening generational trauma.

• The shared Geʽez linguistic and spiritual heritage — once a unifier — risks fragmentation into politicized identities (Eritrean, Tigrayan, Amhara variants).

5. Geopolitical Implications

• The Horn of Africa’s stability is at risk as the Asmara–Mekelle–Addis triangle interacts with crises in Sudan, Somalia, and the Red Sea corridor.

• The war invites foreign intelligence operations (UAE, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Gulf States) and weaponized diplomacy, worsening divisions.

• The African Union and IGAD remain paralyzed by member-state politics, while UN missions struggle for access.

6. Implications for the Habesha Agaezi / Geʽez Heritage Community

• Calls for neutral, heritage-based identity — “Habesha Agaezi Ethiopians” — as an alternative to divisive ethnic politics.

• Need to protect Geʽez heritage sites through UN and UNESCO emergency monitoring.

• Support dialogue mechanisms that reframe identity in cultural, not political, terms.

• Empower grassroots peacebuilders across Geezland regions (Raya, Adwa, Axum, Lalibela, Yeha, Debre Damo, Ham, Asmara) to resist manipulation.

7. Strategic Recommendation (ANU Position)

The Agaezi National Union (ANU) advocates a cultural-peace approach:

• Differentiate people from political factions.

• Reinforce Geʽez identity as a unifying foundation.

• Demand accountability from all three power centers.

• Protect innocent civilians and heritage through independent monitoring.

• Engage international partners (UN, AU, EU, OCHA, UNESCO) in coordinated peacebuilding and heritage safeguarding missions.